Supply shocks are only a huge problem for those addicted to chemical fertilizers
At first, the events of spring 2026 seemed puzzling. I and the consulting team at Restoration Agriculture Development (RAD) found ourselves busier than usual with larger-scale, chemical-ag clients who suddenly were intensely interested in learning how to grow crops without dependency on synthetic inputs. Growers who for decades had been hostile to organic agriculture (along with eco-ag, regenerative ag, restoration ag, etc.) not only paid attention to what was being said by such farmers and ranchers but were actively seeking answers from those who were “doing the impossible.”
The reason for the sudden attention, of course, was supply chain disruptions caused by the political fun-and-games happening in the Strait of Hormuz, in Yemen, and in Ukraine. Depending on which reports you distrust the least, somewhere around 30 percent of the global supply of nitrogen fertilizer was not able to be shipped because of acts of war. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s sulfur supply has not made it to market. Sulfur is an essential plant nutrient and is an ingredient in most crop fertilizers. It is water soluble and easily leaches away, affecting a plant’s ability to synthesize proteins. In addition, sulfur is a critical ingredient in the process by which insoluble phosphorus compounds are converted into soluble, plant-available forms. Missing huge volumes of crop fertilizers is a serious issue when it comes to human food security and the economies driven by agriculture.
Most eco-ag farmers that I interact with have been able to adapt and adjust to the shortages. The disruptions haven’t really affected us. Why is this?
Well, for one, eco-ag farmers are not addicted to synthetic fertilizers. Since our crops are not addicted, our yields aren’t artificially jacked up on the crop equivalent of steroids. When push comes to shove in times of crisis, will chemically enhanced crops fall apart in the field? Will they be able to overwhelm with bulk and vitality when the “magic juice” runs low? Eco-ag farms and ranches pull nitrogen fertilizer right out of the air with legumes, whether in the pasture or used as a plow-down fertilizer for the following crop. They might not supply 300 pounds of N per acre, but 150 when your neighbor’s fields are starving is nothing to sneeze at. Not only are eco-ag farmers taking their N directly from the air (bypassing the entire supply chain) — we’re recycling it and redistributing it with livestock. With permanent roots in the soil, eco-ag farmers are increasing soil organic matter, which effectively sops up soluble elements (such as N and S) and binds with the not-so soluble elements such as phosphorus.
For decades, several of my neighbors (some of them out of business and others dead from chemically related cancers) poo-poohed my use of hard rock phosphate to simultaneously address low calcium and phosphorus. Hard rock phosphate, they argued, is not immediately plant available. It binds to organic matter, keeping it unavailable. In order to make it soluble, it requires acidity that will kill a corn crop. Well, they’re right, but they don’t understand how a living soil operates. A particle of calcium phosphate ingested by a bird or earthworm as grit is ground to smithereens and subjected to digestive acids, making more and more of it available. High organic matter in the soil will tie up phosphorus, yes, but it is also home to multitudes of fungi that exude acids on the point-scale, effectively solubilizing a little bit more phosphorus. Every root from every living plant in the soil is part of the cation exchange process, exuding microdoses of acid directly into the soil. Once the calcium phosphate is made soluble, it is readily absorbed by permanent roots in the soil, to be eaten by an animal and re-excreted or absorbed by our crops to increase yields.
The soil on eco-ag ranches and farms makes its own fertilizer and recycles the nutrients that are there. Farms practicing agroforestry are sometimes sinking roots hundreds of feet deep in search of nutrients that might have leached out during one of the many Roosevelt administrations.
Crop yields on eco-ag farms and ranches are not dependent on oversized yields from chemically dependent crops. We don’t need to buy all those potions, so our bottom line is better. We may yield less, but our expenses are even lower. The years of accumulated organic matter (made up of plant nutrients and carbon) and the not-yet-solubilized mineral particles, acted upon by soil life, serve a similar function as fat on an animal. It is essential for healthy functioning, and it acts as a nutrient and energy reserve in lean times.
Around the world, especially in less prosperous regions, these are lean times. Farmers have been sold the lie that they need chemical fertilizers in order to “feed the world.” The chemical fertilizer addiction has led to sloppy, inattentive farming. Generations of farmers have learned that they can solve their problems with this or that newly developed chemical and can just juice their way to prosperity. That is, until the junk runs out. The street-corner addict can’t get his fix. He becomes skeletal, with sunken eyes and teeth falling out. Eventually he will perish if things don’t turn around.
This spring I’ve been traveling, teaching, and consulting in Latin and South America, and as I write this I’m traveling a circuit in Africa. Keeping oil prices profitably high with military violence and naval blockades is a great way to convince Middle Eastern countries to contract with American companies in order to build data centers. It’s a great way to boost the sales of American weapons and hardware. It’s a great way to keep the U.S. dollar central to world trade, by convincing countries to use crypto stablecoins such as USD and USDT to make their transactions, inserting a speculative layer between the transaction itself and the U.S. treasury instruments in which those transactions are denominated. It’s a great way to “diplomatically” convince Venezuela to turn over custody of its oil revenues to the U.S. and to convince Mexico and the Cook Islands to license U.S.-based underwater mining companies to robotically “harvest” nodules from the largest phosphate deposits ever discovered on the planet.
Everywhere I have been this spring there are signs of the effects of fertilizer supply chain disruptions. Farmers who are already struggling financially have only been able to buy fertilizers with a reduced N fraction. Many blends have zero phosphorus. In chemically dependent agriculture, decreased crop yields are directly and mathematically related to decreased fertilizer availability. Decreased crop yields means lower income, as well as fewer crop residues to feed livestock — here in Africa, crop residues from peanuts and corn are easily 50 percent of cattle, sheep, and goat feed. Less feed means less milk and less meat. Less animal feed means the fat is getting burned away. Farmers desperate to keep their herds alive begin turning them loose further and further away from home, where they nibble the planet to the bones.
I have no illusions that I can have any real control over government policy. Yet you and I do have control over how we ourselves farm, and there has never been a better time to be an ecological farmer or rancher. The most secure path we can follow is the way that is shown by natural ecosystems. We can redesign our farming and ranching operations to more closely mimic natural systems so that we create topsoil faster than nature could. We keep permanent roots in the ground wherever possible. We use as few toxins as we possibly can and use tillage as a management tool — only when actually needed to “re-set” succession and steer it in an optimized direction. We can plant windbreaks and hedgerows using edible crops for additional yields when appropriate. We can shelter our crop fields by alley cropping between rows of trees or shrubs, a strategy that also protects our livestock from heat and wind stress.
We can cut the fertilizer umbilical cord, getting our N from the air and our P from legacy phosphorus supplies and by partnering with pig- and poultry-raising neighbors for supplies of manure. Eco-ag farmers may not agree on everything, but we do realize that homeland security, food security, supply-chain security, and our security comes from diverse systems that mimic natural systems. Our strength comes from working together and learning from one another. Persevere!
